While 2025 isn’t an election year for Birmingham or the West Midlands Combined Authority, voters across the Midlands counties of Staffordshire, Warwickshire, Worcestershire, Shropshire, Leicestershire, Nottinghamshire, and Derbyshire will head to the polls on May 1.
With unpopular policies like the so-called “farmers tax” and net zero turning rural voters away—and “two-tier Keir” now a popular dig at Labour’s national offering—Starmer’s party is also struggling to gain traction in many areas.
These traditionally Conservative county councils are facing a new kind of pressure: a visible and coordinated push by Reform UK to disrupt the local political order.
Reform UK’s momentum in national polls has continued despite setbacks, from internal rows with Rupert Lowe to awkward public statements distancing the party from figures like Tommy Robinson. But the brand is rising, especially among younger voters—and that’s reflected in some of Reform’s candidates, including Olympic boxer Luke Campbell, Love Island’s Ollie Williams, and Stiliyan Petrov, son of the former Aston Villa captain.
While roads, schools, and social care remain the issues most voters care about, this year’s contests carry a deeper question: will the national surge for Reform UK translate into real breakthroughs on the ground?
Staffordshire: A Potential Breakthrough for Reform UK
Staffordshire has long been a Conservative stronghold, with the party holding 53 of 62 seats after recent by-election losses. However, Reform UK is contesting every division in the county, signaling a serious challenge. In the 2024 general election, Reform secured significant vote shares in areas like Tamworth (25.1%) and Cannock Chase (approximately 22%), indicating potential for gains in urban and semi-urban districts such as Tamworth, Stafford, Cannock, Burton, and Lichfield.
Warwickshire: Conservative Dominance with Emerging Reform Presence
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Warwickshire County Council remains under Conservative control, with 42 of 57 seats. While there have been no dramatic shifts since 2021, Reform UK’s presence is notable, fielding candidates in several divisions. Former footballer Stiliyan Petrov Jr. is standing for Reform in the rural Lapworth & West Kenilworth division, highlighting the party’s appeal to younger voters. Despite this, the Conservatives are expected to retain control, with Reform’s impact likely limited to increasing their profile for future contests.
Worcestershire: Conservative Stronghold Faces Minor Challenges
Worcestershire County Council is firmly Conservative, with the party holding 45 of 57 seats since 2021. Opposition parties, including the Liberal Democrats, Labour, and Greens, have a minimal presence. Reform UK is fielding candidates in the county, but their influence is expected to be limited, with the main contests occurring in urban areas such as Worcester city, Redditch, and Kidderminster.
Shropshire: Liberal Democrats Eye Gains Amid Conservative Control
Shropshire Council, covering the county excluding Telford & Wrekin, is currently Conservative-controlled, with 43 of 74 seats. The Liberal Democrats, holding 14 seats, are focusing on areas like Shrewsbury and market towns such as Ludlow and Bridgnorth. Reform UK’s presence is minimal, and their impact on the council’s composition is expected to be negligible in this election cycle.
Leicestershire: Conservative Stability with Limited Reform Influence
Leicestershire County Council remains securely Conservative, with the party holding 42 of 55 seats. The Liberal Democrats and Labour occupy the remaining seats, primarily in suburban areas like Oadby & Wigston and the county’s north. Reform UK is fielding approximately 10–11 candidates, aiming to raise their profile, but they are unlikely to secure seats in this election.
Nottinghamshire: A Three-Way Contest Emerges
Nottinghamshire County Council has a slimmer Conservative majority, with the party holding 37 of 66 seats. Labour holds 15 seats, while the Ashfield Independents, a breakaway group of former Labour councillors, control 10 seats, primarily in the Ashfield district. Reform UK is making significant inroads, with polling data indicating a surge in support and potential seat gains, particularly in areas like Bassetlaw, Nottingham North, and Sherwood Forest.
Derbyshire: Reform UK Poised for Significant Gains
Derbyshire County Council is currently Conservative-controlled, with the party holding 45 of 64 seats. However, recent polling suggests a surge in support for Reform UK, with the party predicted to gain control or become the largest party in the council. Notably, nine of the eleven parliamentary constituencies in Derbyshire are forecast to switch from Labour to Reform UK, indicating a significant shift in voter sentiment.
As voters prepare to cast their ballots, the 2025 local elections in the Midlands present a complex political landscape. While traditional parties aim to maintain their strongholds, Reform UK’s targeted campaigns and rising popularity could lead to unexpected outcomes, particularly in areas where they have demonstrated significant support. The results will not only shape local governance but also signal broader shifts in the UK’s political dynamics.
