Frequently Asked Questions — Cardiff North Constituency

Who won the Cardiff North constituency election in 2015?

Conservative gained Cardiff North constituency at the 7 May 2015 General Election, taking the seat from Labour. Conservative won with a majority of 2,137 votes (4.2%). Turnout was 76.1%.

What was the swing in Cardiff North at the 2015 election?

The swing in Cardiff North was 8.7% from LAB to CON — a significant shift towards CON. Swing is calculated using the Butler two-party formula: the average of the change in winner's vote share and the fall in the runner-up's vote share compared to the previous election here.

What does swing mean in UK elections?

Swing measures how much support has shifted between two parties compared to a previous election. The Butler swing formula — used in British election reporting since the 1950s — takes the average of the gain in the winner's vote share and the loss in the runner-up's. A 5% swing is considered large at ward level; anything above 10% is exceptional. The swing figure for Cardiff North in 2015 is shown in the statistics above.