🔴 MAHMOOD POISED TO STRIP CONFIDENCE FROM EMBATTLED POLICE CHIEF
The constitutional machinery of British policing is currently grinding toward a rare and terminal conclusion.
Sources familiar with the emerging UN dossier from His Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC) suggest that the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood Jo, is no longer merely "concerned" by the conduct of West Midlands Police Chief Constable Craig Guildford; she is reportedly prepared to formally withdraw her confidence in his leadership.
For a force already under the microscope, the allegations are nothing short of catastrophic. The core of the scandal involves a suspected "retrospective justification"—a polite term for a cover-up—following the decision to ban Maccabi Tel Aviv fans from Villa Park last November.
The Evidence: A Dossier of Discrepancies
The "intelligence" used to justify the exclusion of Israeli fans is now being dismantled by the very authorities WMP claimed to be quoting.
Those in the know who have seen the preliminary findings of the HMIC probe indicate that the gap between the force’s narrative and the reality on the ground is not a matter of interpretation, but of systemic failure.
- The Manpower Myth: WMP claimed 5,000 Dutch officers were required to police the fans in Amsterdam. Dutch authorities have now confirmed the actual figure was 1,200.
- The Arrest Failure: Perhaps most damning is the alleged failure to act against local agitators in September. Despite "high-confidence" evidence of online messages breaching the Public Order Act 1986—specifically incitement to racial and religious hatred and the organisation of armed violence against fans—WMP reportedly failed to arrest or charge the ringleaders. It is suggested the force prioritised narrative control over enforcement, potentially violating investigative duties under national hate crime guidelines.
- The "Scraping" Excuse: Before the Home Affairs Select Committee, Guildford blamed "social media scraping" for inaccuracies. However, internal whispers suggest the "intelligence" was purposefully curated to support a pre-determined political outcome: the removal of Jewish fans to avoid local disorder.
- The Dutch Rebuttal: The Dutch police have reportedly taken the extraordinary step of testifying that WMP’s claims of fans targeting Muslim communities were "completely wrong."
Legal Reality: What "Withdrawing Confidence" Actually Means
In the context of the Police Reform and Social Responsibility Act 2011, a Home Secretary’s withdrawal of confidence is the "nuclear option." While the Home Secretary cannot personally hand a P45 to a Chief Constable, the legal implications are immediate:
- The Section 38 Trigger: This formalises a lack of "efficiency and effectiveness." It forces the local Police and Crime Commissioner (PCC) into a corner.
- The Inevitability of Resignation: Once the Home Secretary—the ultimate arbiter of national security and police funding—declares a Chief untenable, the PCC is legally and politically compelled to initiate the "retirement or resignation" process.
- The Death of Operational Independence: A Chief without the Home Secretary’s confidence is a leader without a seat at the national table. They cannot command the respect of their peers or the resources of the Home Office.
The Hypothetical Outcome: A Resignation by Friday?
Given the now extreme weight of evidence and the aggressive nature of the briefings currently circulating in Westminster, a quiet exit is no longer an option for Craig Guildford.
The Prediction: The HMIC report, expected to be published imminently, will likely find that WMP failed in its duty of candour.
This will leave the PCC, Simon Foster, with no shield to protect his Chief. We should expect a carefully worded "resignation for the good of the force" within the next 48 to 72 hours.
If Guildford attempts to dig in, the Home Secretary will likely move to a formal Section 38(2) intervention, marking a historic moment where a Chief is forced out over the alleged fabrication of intelligence to suit a political narrative.
